The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a 70 to 75 percent chance of El Niño conditions developing within the next two months.
Typically El Niño means drier and warmer weather for the Pacific Northwest and wetter and cooler conditions for the Southern United States. Middle Tennessee typically sees minimal impacts from El Niño.
Not every El Niño is the same and there can be variations in how strong the impacts are. El Niño can be weak, moderate, or strong.
Here’s some interesting information from NOAA. When we look back at previous El Niño years in Middle Tennessee, it seems that weak El Niño patterns typically have more of an impact on our weather conditions than strong events.
During weak El Niño years, Middle Tennessee is typically slightly cooler and slightly drier than it is during strong El Niño years or during years with no El Niño (neutral years).
Since El Niño is expected to be weak, it’s possible that we will see slightly cooler and slightly drier conditions as we start the Winter season.