Editor’s Note: This forecast has since been updated. Click here to read the latest timeline on the storm chances in Middle Tennessee on January 18 through the early morning hours of January 19.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — More severe storms are possible Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning. This will be the third possible severe weather event we’ve had this month.
The slight risk (level 2/5) has been pushed west past the TN River. Areas from I-65 and westward are under a marginal risk (level 1/5). The main concern will come from strong, gusty winds and heavy pockets of rain.
Between noon and 4 p.m. Wednesday, rain will approach the Tennessee River. Between 7 and midnight the line of heavy rain and storms will move east towards I-65. As they march east into early Thursday morning the intensity will die down. Once the storms arrive, the primary severe weather risk will be damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. However, hail and tornado threats are low, but not zero.
Here’s a look at the timing. Wednesday morning starts off mild thanks to a stalled boundary. It will lift north as a warm front in the afternoon. This will increase moisture to Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky and will remain cloudy and windy. Wind gusts Wednesday are expected to be between 20-35 mph. Temperatures easily reach the mid-60s by Wednesday afternoon. Rain risk through the early afternoon is low (greater in West Tennessee and west of the Mississippi River). However, look for a few showers and storms (likely non-severe) in parts of the Mid-State.
By Wednesday late afternoon, storms will be approaching the Tennessee River. Arrival to the I-65 corridor will be between 10 PM – 1 AM. As the line moves east, the atmosphere becomes more stable, reducing the overall severe risk. This will not exclude wind gusts reaching 30-45 mph at times. Into early Thursday morning, the line is moving swiftly. Storms clear out before sunrise along the Cumberland Plateau. Dry conditions return by mid-morning Thursday.
Rain amounts from this system should total in the 1-2 inch range. Also, wind gusts could be up to at least 40 mph even outside of the storms.
Stay with News 2 as Nashville’s Weather Authority of meteorologists track the storms.