Editor’s Note: An updated forecast has been published. Click here to read the latest on the storm chances for March 1-3.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — The start of March will begin like a lion! Wednesday through Friday feature the risk of severe thunderstorms and possible flooding across Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky. This is the start of severe weather season, so remaining vigilant of the changing forecast is key.

Severe Outlooks

We are now under a tornado watch for Decatur county and a few more counties in West Tennessee. This watch will last until 10 PM. All modes of severe weather are possible with isolated tornadoes, thunderstorms, flooding, and strong winds.

Here is the general overview for the time periods you’ll want to be weather aware. The first is after 5 p.m. Wednesday into early Thursday morning. The second round is from Thursday afternoon and evening. The final round will be Friday morning through about midday. With these three time intervals, we are under marginal and slight risks in the area.

Round 1: Wednesday evening into early Thursday

Before this round of storms arrives in the area, a record-high temperature will be in jeopardy! The record for Wednesday is 81° in 1997, we are forecasting a high near 82!

After 6 p.m. Wednesday, gusty and possibly severe storms enter our area. They push out just after midnight.

All modes of severe weather are possible with all 3 rounds. The biggest threats are gusty winds and heavy rain, however the tornado & hail threat are not zero.

With heavy rain possible, our area is under a risk of flooding! A Flood Watch has been issued for Decatur, Benton, Henry, Carroll, Perry, Wayne, Hickman, Lewis, Maury, Lawrence, Giles, Marshall, Bedford, Coffee, Grundy, Lincoln, Franklin & Moore Counties from 3pm Wednesday through 6pm Friday.

Round 2: Thursday night into early Friday

Thursday evening as a warm front lifts north, a few stronger storms are expected through early Friday morning, but the SPC outlook goes through 7am Friday and then Fridays outlook takes over.

With this round of rainfall, the flooding risk will increase even more. The majority of our area is under a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall, with a Moderate Risk of flash flooding near the Tennessee River.

Round 3: Friday morning

More storms will develop early Friday and continue through about midday. These storms could also turn severe.

Potential rain totals

Rain totals in our area are estimated in the 2-3 inch range. But it is possible to see 4-inch plus totals across our western and southern areas of Middle Tennessee.