NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — Middle Tennessee is waterlogged after last week’s beneficial rainfall of two to five inches. Now, more rain is heading to Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky, and it is not out of the question to receive an additional one to three inches of rain just on Wednesday alone. The risk for minor flooding is possible.

Weather Setup

A dynamic upper low across the central US is sweeping across the country, bringing with it colder temperatures, heavy rain, severe weather and heavy snow totals.

On the southern side of this weather system, the colder air aloft supports the severe weather threat happening in parts of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

For Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky, severe weather is very low. However, the focus is on the heavy rain and possible flooding. Because of this flood risk, the Weather Prediction Center has most of the region under a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for flash flooding. The main areas of concern would be small streams and creeks that can rise quickly thanks to recent rainfall. Widespread flash flooding is not expected. Forecast models depict rain totals at least of one to two inches, with some areas receiving close to three inches by late Wednesday night.

Timing the rain

Wave One
Our first round of rain enters our western counties before 12 a.m. Wednesday. Because the ground is very saturated, the gusty winds that accompany the rain could lead to a few reports of wind damage. This should not be major, but something to watch. Rain overspreads all of our area into Wednesday morning, pushing east as the morning commute commences.

Wave Two
The second wave of showers and storms increases from the southwest by midday and through the early afternoon. This batch may not be as intense, but still some heavy rain pockets are expected.

Wave Three
The final wave continues along with the previous batch of rain. Increasing in intensity for areas east of I-65, while west of I-65 rain coverage and intensity increases through the late afternoon and evening. This final batch of rain and thunderstorms will quickly move east and should clear the region by early Thursday morning.

After the rain clears, colder air gradually moves in. This will lead to below normal temperatures well into the Christmas holiday.

The outlook for cold temperatures are likely through the end of the month! If you are wanting wintry precipitation, there are possible indications of it beyond the 10 day outlook, but the forecast models change with that parameter often. Confidence grows for wintry weather in the three to five day range, so stay tuned for updates.