NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — Despite an apparent spike in homicides in October, preliminary data shows the number of homicides in Nashville and Davidson County is still slightly under the number reported by the same time last year.

As of Oct. 28, 2023, there had been 94 homicides reported in the area — over a dozen more than at the start of the month, but two less than that time last year. That’s according to unofficial reports in the Metro Nashville Police Department’s weekly crime initiative book. 

The weekly report prepared by the MNPD Crime Analysis Section provides data on all part one offenses, including homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft and arson.

According to the MNPD, “these serious crimes” are the focus of police activity. Arson offenses in Davidson County are not included in public MNPD Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) because those offenses are investigated by the Nashville Fire Department.

Other notable stats from the report include a continuous rise in auto theft, which is up over 50% compared to the same period last year. In some areas like the police department’s South precinct, auto theft has risen over 119% from last year.

Meanwhile, crimes like burglary and robbery have dropped in nearly every part of Nashville and Davidson County.

Although the data is reviewed by the MNPD for accuracy and completeness, it does not reflect official counts. Below is a breakdown of the crimes that have been reported in Nashville and Davidson County so far this year.

Violent crime

Violent crime is composed of four offenses: homicide, rape, aggravated assault, and robbery. According to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, violent crimes are those offenses which involve force or threat of force.

According to unofficial reports, the violent crime rate in Nashville and Davidson County has stayed about the same when compared to the same time last year. The data reflects only a slight decline at about 1.2%, with a total of 7,480 violent crimes reported by Oct. 28, 2023.

The largest drop in violent crime has been in the MNPD’s Hermitage precinct, where preliminary reports reflect a 12.4% decrease. While the police department’s West precinct has seen the largest increase in violent offenses, with a 12% jump from last year.

Last month, the South precinct had the highest percentage increase in violent crime. Overall, the Madison, South and West precincts are the primary areas that have continued to see a rise in violent crime when compared to the same period last year.

Homicide

Unofficial reports show there have been 94 homicides reported in Nashville and Davidson County as of Oct. 28, 2023 — 13 more than were reported at the beginning of the month. However, that is still a 2.1% decrease from the 96 homicides reported by Oct. 28, 2022.

While the number of homicides reported year-to-date in the West precinct has stayed the same as last year, the North, Midtown Hills and East precincts have all seen an increase in homicide.

The Midtown Hills precinct has seen the largest rise in homicide, with a 140% increase compared to the same period last year. According to preliminary reports, 12 homicides were reported in the precinct by Oct. 28, 2023, and five were reported by Oct. 28, 2022.

Part of that rise can be attributed to a deadly mass shooting at The Covenant School in March. No new homicides have been reported in the Midtown Hills precinct for months. The second largest increase has been in the North precinct, with 18 homicides reported so far this year.

Officers in all eight police precincts included in the report have responded to at least four homicides this year, with five of those precincts reporting 12 or more homicides. Compared to 2022, there were far more homicides reported in January this year.

The homicide rate was higher this year, until it began leveling out with last year’s numbers in July. However, there appears to have been a spike in homicides in October when compared to the same 28-day period in 2022.

The majority of reported victims have been in the 18 to 34 age range. However, as of Oct. 28, 2023, three victims have been 65 years or older and five have been 12 years or younger.

Rape

Overall, unofficial data shows the number of rapes reported in Nashville and Davidson County has slightly increased from the previous period last year, with 437 reports made in 2022 and 459 reports made by Oct. 28, 2023.

Reports of rape had previously been decreasing since May, when rape was up about 7.2%. A large portion have been reported in the MNPD’s South precinct, where preliminary reports show there has been a 20.6% increase, with 117 rapes reported by the end of October.

Aggravated assault

There have been 5,842 incidences of aggravated assault reported in Nashville and Davidson County so far this year — an about 0.3% increase from the 5,822 aggravated assaults reported by the same time last year, according to unofficial reports.

The FBI’s UCR Program defines aggravated assault as an unlawful attack by one person upon another for the purpose of inflicting severe or aggravated bodily injury. The majority of aggravated assaults have also been reported in the MNPD’s South precinct.

Robbery

The total number of robberies reported in Nashville and Davidson County has dropped about 10.9% so far this year, according to preliminary reports. Overall, there have been 1,085 reports made, which is 133 less than the same period last year.

The FBI’s UCR Program defines robbery as the taking or attempting to take anything of value from a person by force or threat of force, and by putting the victim in fear.

Nearly every police precinct has seen a decrease in robberies, with the exception of the South precinct where unofficial reports show there has been a 3.4% increase. The largest decrease has been in the North precinct, where robberies have dropped 27.2%.

Specifically, commercial robbery has dropped significantly with preliminary reports showing an overall 23.7% decline from last year. Commercial robbery is down 42.9% in the Midtown Hills precinct, with only 12 incidents reported so far this year, compared to 21 in 2022.

Property crime

Property crime includes the offenses of burglary, larceny, auto theft and arson. According to the UCR Program, the object of theft-type offenses is the taking of money or property, but there is no force or threat of force against the victims.

So far this year, unofficial reports show property crime in Nashville and Davidson County has increased by about 11.8%. In total, 25,628 incidents have been reported compared to the 22,932 incidents reported by the same time last year.

The majority of property offenses have been reported in the police department’s South precinct, where property crime has risen by about 37% since the same period last year. So far, 5,275 property offenses have been reported in the area compared to 3,850 last year.

The Central precinct is the only area that has seen a decrease in property crime, at about 2.5%.

Burglary

Burglary remains the offense with the largest decline in Nashville and Davidson County, with every single police precinct reporting a decrease compared to the same time last year. Overall, preliminary reports show incidences of burglary have dropped nearly 21.5%.

Burglary involves the unlawful entry of a home or business. In the Metro area, the largest decline has been in commercial burglary. According to unofficial reports, 1,195 commercial burglaries were reported by Oct. 28, 2022, compared to just 891 so far this year.

Residential burglary has also dropped 18.8%. The West precinct has seen the sharpest decline in burglaries, with 295 incidents reported by this time last year and only 167 reports made by Oct. 28, 2023. That represents a 43.4% decrease.

Larceny

While burglary reports in Nashville and Davidson County have sharply declined, preliminary reports reflect an about 10.4% increase in larceny. Examples of larceny are thefts of bicycles, motor vehicle parts and accessories, shoplifting or pocket-picking.

The police department’s South precinct has seen the most considerable rise in larceny, with an about 28% increase and a total of 3,433 incidents reported so far this year. The only precinct where reports of larceny have decreased is the Central precinct, with an around 1.6% decline.

Auto theft

Auto theft has been one of the fastest-rising crimes in Nashville and Davidson County, according to unofficial reports. In total, 4,306 auto thefts have been reported so far this year. That’s 1,655 more reports since July and a 56.7% increase from the 2,748 thefts reported by Oct. 28, 2022.

All eight police precincts have reported an increase in auto thefts compared to this time last year. However, the South precinct has been hit the hardest, with a 119.3% increase in auto thefts and 1,285 incidents reported compared to just 586 last year.