NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — The number of homes on the market has exploded since last year — three times more, in fact. News 2 talked with a local housing data expert to see what all these available homes will do to the sky-high home prices.

“Right now, if you are a home buyer, being strategic is more important than it’s ever been,” said CPA and Realtor Ethan Flynn.

Flynn tracks Middle Tennessee’s housing data week-by-week for viewers on his YouTube channel.

His professional team, Nashville Housing Intelligence, which is dedicated to educating and supporting home buyers and sellers on housing by using data analytics, has collected more than a year of Middle Tennessee housing data across nine counties, and they are seeing a shift in inventory.

“We are about three times where we were last year, which is incredible to see that kind of increase in inventory.”

In March 2022, inventory was tight with only 2,000 homes on the market, but March 2023 was a different story with 6,000 homes available. Flynn’s data shows that inventory jumping even higher in April.

“We could see 1,000 single-family houses in active status by the end of this month, in addition to what we had at the start of this month — an increase of 1,000 active listings.”

At the same time inventory is up, Flynn said that contract volume is down as much as 20%. More homes and fewer sales could bring down prices.

“When you look at the relative affordability of Nashville and the Nashville housing market, another 10% to 20% drop in prices is not unreasonable,” said Flynn. “Something has to give to make this market more affordable, and it will. It will happen. It will happen.”

Year over year, the median price point has taken a hit. In March 2022, a single-family home was priced at $461,000, and in March 2023, at $463,000, it was essentially flat. Throw in a possible recession, higher interest rates and trouble with the banks, Flynn said there are still a number of question marks in the coming months, so right now here is his advice for buyers:

“It doesn’t mean that you don’t buy. It does mean that you are very careful, you are cautious, you’re not rushed, you don’t wave contingencies, and that you look to push on the asking price.”

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Even with all the talk of falling home prices, the experts at Nashville Housing Intelligence still say that our area is a phenomenal place to buy. We are top in the nation for job growth and new people moving in.