Severe weather chances for Wednesday, May 14 - WKRN News 2

Severe weather chances for Wednesday, May 14

Posted:
Although there should be some storms developing overnight through Wednesday morning, the biggest threat for severe weather appears to be Wednesday afternoon and evening with a second round of storms.

It may not be the biggest severe weather outbreak we have ever seen, BUT we will be watching for the possibility for a few strong storms in the 1 PM - 8 PM time period (7 PM-midnight eastern counties) that could contain damaging winds (and possibly a brief spin up tornado).

In the top graphic the Storm Prediction Center has us in their "Slight Risk" for severe weather.

Low pressure will move across west Middle TN during the afternoon and into Kentucky during the evening with a trailing cold front.

One question is whether the overnight-morning storms will keep us too cool for the second round to bring severe weather.  However, the low pressure developing along the front could create enough dynamics to do the trick, so we will be watching.

For weather geeks:

Concerning the above question:  CAPE on the NAM goes down from morning forecasts of 1,500-2,000 j/kg to only 250-500 j/kg during the afternoon.  That could show cooling effect.  The GFS runs 750-1,000 j/kg at 18z (1pm) dropping to 250-500 later in the afternoon.  We will have to see if there is some heating following that first round to create instability.

0-3 km Helicity is not that high with NAM and GFS at 150-200 m2/s2.
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