Sunday Update: Looking Ahead To Severe Weather Chances - WKRN News 2

Sunday Update: Looking Ahead To Severe Weather Chances

Sunday Update: Looking Ahead To Severe Weather Chances

Posted:
Today-Early Monday Morning Today-Early Monday Morning
Monday Afternoon-Evening Monday Afternoon-Evening
Tuesday Tuesday
FORECAST:

Here is the latest on the weather for Sunday afternoon.  Showers and thunderstorms moving up from Jackson, Tennessee.  Rain will continue to move into Nashville Sunday afternoon and evening.  Periods of heavy rain possible along with some strong winds gusts.  And severe weather should move to the north and south of Tennessee Sunday evening.  Not expecting severe weather for Sunday. 

(By Davis Nolan)
There will be four rounds of showers and storms.  Here is the timing and breakdown of each:

ROUND 1:  This afternoon (Sunday):  Showers and a few thundershowers but not severe.

ROUND 2:  Late Sunday night-Monday morning:  A line of storms could possibly produce some damaging winds and hail, with an isolated tornado mostly west of Nashville.  Monday morning rush hour commute could have heavy downpours.  The Storm Prediction Center has the "Slight Risk" (in yellow) from just west of Nashville extending westward (2nd graphic).

ROUND 3:  Monday afternoon-evening any time from midday on:  This is expected to be the worst with possible tornadoes, damaging winds and hail likely.  The Storm Prediction Center has a "Moderate Risk", which is significant (in orange) for much of the southwest half of Middle TN and the "Slight Risk" everywhere (3rd graphic).  Again, I don't like the word "slight".  It implies not to worry, which is incorrect.

ROUND 4:  Tuesday afternoon:  Thunder and downpours. Severe weather possible along the border with Alabama, but not in Nashville and the rest of Middle TN (4th graphic).
Synopsis:

The break between Round 2 & Round 3 could allow the atmosphere to heat up to near 80°, along with already present humidity to "prime" Round 3. 

It would be a good idea to download our WKRN APP and charge your phone today in case you need it tomorrow.

For weather geeks:

12z NAM:  CAPE 1,500 j/kg, 0-500 mb Bulk Shear: 55-70 kts, 0-3 km Helicity: 200-250 m2/s2.

0z GFS for Monday afternoon:  CAPE 2,000 j/kg, 0-500mb Bulk Shear: 55 kts, 0-3 km Helicity: 350-400 m2/s2 by 0z.

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