In our last entry Sunday night, we talked about how the warm up this week could yield thunderstorms by this weekend.
That still looks to be the case and it is possible that some storms could be strong or severe.
Temps on Saturday should be near 70 for a high, with dew points climbing into the 60s.
Although there will be showers and a few t'storms on Friday, overall, they don't look severe.
Any threat of severe weather would begin on Saturday, but would be most likely Saturday night through Sunday morning. The 4th graphic shows the ECMWF model is slower, waiting until Sunday morning to bring the strongest storms in.
Details still remain to be seen, but damaging winds and isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out at this time. It's not a lock, so we'll keep you posted.
In addition, heavy rains Friday-Sunday morning could dump 2-3" of rain in some areas.
For weather geeks:
It is once again one of those "low CAPE" moderately high shear situations, with forecasted CAPE values only between 250-500 j/kg.
Forecasted 0-500 mb bulk shear Sat. night-Sun. morning running 65-70 knots here, up to 90-110 knots in SE Missouri, Illinois, & Indiana where the worst could occur.
Forecasted 0-3km Helicity 450-500 plus which is up there.