We are going to be fine tuning the sleet/freezing rain situation for Friday night as the week wears on and we get new weather data.
As the cold air is pushing in farther southeastward on Friday, warmer upper level winds will still be southwest, causing rain to fall into subfreezing temperatures.
The top two graphics show the midnight surface temperature forecast from the models we often look at for forecasting more than 3 days out, the GFS and the ECMWF.
Notice the difference in where the freezing line is. That is actually pretty close for a GLOBAL model, but to us here in Middle TN, it will be critical for where travel problems could occur, and even icing on trees and power lines.
Right now, I split the difference and think that from Nashville north & westward we will see sleet and freezing rain Friday night, while south & east of Nashville it will remain mostly rain, maybe mixing with a little sleet. Nashville is right on the line.
The last graphic is the GFS forecast of precip type at midnight and that is somewhat in agreement.
It's going to be a close call!
Places like Clarksville, Paris, Dover, & Erin stand the worst chance for ice in our viewing area.
Paducah, Jonesboro, Little Rock, & Evansville look real bad for icing even as early as late Thursday night into Friday morning.