After starting the weekend out with a frost and freeze on Saturday, a warm up is in store this week.
Indian Summer weather is in store as temperatures should soar into the 70s by mid week.
However, that should set the stage for some storms on Thursday with the next cold front.
Thursday is Halloween, and there are two questions:
1) Will there be any severe weather?
2) Will it still be raining Halloween night?
The definite answers will become more clear as the week wears on, BUT the latest data shows the possibility that some of the storms could become strong or severe. There will be lots of "shear" dynamics, but there are questions on the instability. We will keep you posted.
As for Halloween night, one model ends the rain at or just after sunset Thursday, while the other keeps the rain going all night.
With that in mind, parents should think about having an indoor "back-up plan" for the kids just in case. Even if the rain ends in the nick of time, the ground will be wet and muddy.
Technical stuff for weather geeks on the severe weather chances:
Sfc-500 mb Bulk Shear (0-6 km) for Thursday PM is 70-80 knots which could produce severe weather.
However the MU Cape from the GFS for that time period is in the 250-500 j/kg range, which is marginal (depending on the shear).