After all of the worry of severe weather last week, it all fell apart, as wind shears and instability were reduced considerably when the system finally arrived here.
So what about this week?
I would be negligent if I did not say that it is too early to really tell, and model info could change (like last week!).
That being said, there are some amazing similarities to last week, but also some differences in what the models are forecasting that could increase chances for severe weather later this week.
If you are not into the "weather geek" details, the bottom line is we are watching this Thursday PM for severe weather possibilities. If you want the "geek" details, read on!
80 degree temperatures and 60 degree dew points returning ahead of our next front, which should arrive Thursday PM (that's usually a set up for severe, but despite that it did not happen last week).
Both the GFS and ECMWF both appear to be trying to develop a surface low (or at least wave of low pressure) along the front as it moves into Middle TN. See first two graphics of the two different models.
That could increase the wind shears by backing winds to south or southeast at the surface, while a SSW low level jet moves at about 5,000 ft. at 50 knots or higher. See the 3rd graphic.
That's the "shear" in the vertical, both in direction and in velocity.
Last week, that low level jet did not really materialize in Middle TN. In addition, temps cooled in many areas of Middle TN.
It's a wait and see, but right now, chances look more likely for severe weather later this week.
But as you know, things could change, so we'll keep you posted.