Near 80° This Week, Then Storms; Will They Be Severe? - WKRN News 2

Near 80° This Week, Then Storms; Will They Be Severe?

925 mb (about 2,600 ft) winds 925 mb (about 2,600 ft) winds
850 mb (about 5,000 ft) winds 850 mb (about 5,000 ft) winds
700 mb (about 10,000 ft) winds 700 mb (about 10,000 ft) winds

A strong southerly flow will continue to warm us up this week, with near 80° temps possible (with enough sunshine) by Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

However, that should also push our dew points into the 60s by the time our next front brings us some t'storms Wednesday night through early Thursday.

Therefore, we want to keep an eye on the possibility for severe weather with these storms.

Besides the moisture (the 60 degree dew points) we need to see a low level jet and some shear (change in speed/direction) in the column of air in the low to mid levels.

At the surface overnight Wednesday night, winds should be south around 15 knots.

Notice on first 3 graphics to the right, the winds increase to between 50-60 knots from 2,600-5,000-10,000 ft.  Notice that they also become more southwest with height.

These are the types of ingredients that MIGHT lend themselves to some severe weather. 

One hope is that temperatures will be cooler in the overnight hours.

Notice in the last graphic that the Storm Prediction Center's long range outlook puts the severe weather up to the Tennessee River (right now).

It will be a fine line, so we will keep you posted as the week goes on.

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