A Wind Advisory is in effect today, for winds 20-30 mph with gusts to 35 mph. This is for winds out ahead of the t'storms that we expect this afternoon and evening.
The storms themselves could also have some gusty winds that could bring down a few limbs and dump heavy rains, but overall this does NOT look like the severe weather situation we experienced almost two weeks ago, when 22 tornadoes struck the mid-state area.
First, notice in the third graphic that the Storm Prediction Center is putting the Severe Risk in Mississippi, Louisiana, SE Arkansas and parts of Alabama.
To get severe weather we need not only the strong wind shears, but instability, as well.
Today, our high should be around 60°. This morning's dew points (measure of humidity) were in the low 30s, and are not expected to get any higher than the upper 40s when the storms arrive.
Dew points in the 50s or above are commonly needed to get the bad instability.
On January 30th, our temperature reached 70°. and the dew points were in the 60s.
That's a big difference in instability.
Now what about any chances for winter weather this week?
As far as snow chances are concerned, Tuesday night and Wednesday we may see some rain mix with or end in a little snow, but temps will be above freezing and even push into the 40s Wednesday afternoon, so nothing major there.
Friday night a strong push of arctic air is expected to arrive for the weekend that could ring out some sort of snow chance, with highs by Saturday not expected to get above freezing. We'll keep you posted.
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