FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MONDAY NEAR PADUCAH AND MEMPHIS SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 30 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH CONVECTION BENEATH THE TROUGH IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE 500 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -14C. FURTHER TO THE EAST IN THE CORRIDOR FROM CINCINNATI TO NASHVILLE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 TO 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET. THE MODELS SUGGEST A LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MOVE INTO THE WRN APPALACHIAN MTNS SUNDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A LINE DEVELOPS...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN IN AREAS TO THE WEST SUGGESTING THE THREAT MAY BE MORE CONDITIONAL THERE.
The last sentence of their statement implies some weakening of the storms as they push into our area.
However, with so many folks outside on a warm Sunday afternoon, people should keep an eye on the sky, and obey lightning and thunderstorm safety rules by getting indoors should a storm threaten their area.
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