I know that everyone's enjoying the fall-like weather!
If the GFS Model forecast graphic up top looks familiar, well it is! It is almost identical Saturday's entry about the front that brought the current cool temps.
And look at the 6-10 Day Outlook that the Climate Prediction Center issued yesterday for the 14th-28th (or almost the end of the month). It's a match!
But look at the forecast for September put out on August 31st. If my calculations are correct, we are we are below normal for the month so far (despite the hot start!). If it stays cool, that kills that September forecast.
I just wanted to show you how difficult a long range forecast is.
The folks at the Climate Prediction Center are the best in the world at these long range forecast, and look how wrong even they can be.
So when you ask if the winter is going to be cold or hot, you can see that the answer is not that easy!